If your business has been on the fence about investing in solar PV systems, there’s a strong financial incentive to act now rather than later.
From 1 April 2026, China, the world’s largest exporter of solar PV panels and components, will completely remove value-added tax (VAT) export rebates on PV products. This policy shift is expected to increase global solar equipment prices, tighten supply and make future project costs significantly higher for buyers worldwide.
In our latest blog, AR Power’s Operations Director, Chris Balmer, looks at the impact of the rebate change and why businesses should act now.
What Is China’s VAT Export Rebate Change?
For more than a decade, Chinese solar manufacturers have benefitted from VAT export rebates that effectively reduced the cost of modules, cells and other PV products shipped abroad. These rebates helped keep international prices low, contributed to rapid global solar adoption and strengthened China’s dominance in solar manufacturing.
On the 1st of April 2026, Chinese authorities will abolish these VAT export rebates entirely for PV products. The change also affects battery products, which will see rebates gradually reduced before they are removed by January 2027.
This change reflects a strategic shift, rather than subsidising exports indefinitely, the policy aims to restore rational pricing, reduce trade frictions and encourage supply chain adjustments globally.
Why This Matters for Solar Prices
The VAT rebate effectively acted as a price buffer for Chinese manufacturers, allowing them to sell panels abroad at lower net costs, removing that rebate means manufacturers face higher net export costs and many are expected to pass these costs on to buyers. Industry analysts and market reports suggest that global solar panel prices may rise 10–15 % or more in 2026 as a result of this policy shift and other supply chain pressures.
Even before the rebate is fully removed, buyers are already anticipating these changes. The prospect of higher costs has triggered pre-April buying activity and stockpiling, which typically drives prices up nearer the deadline.
In practical terms, this means that solar modules, the heart of any PV system, are likely to be more expensive after April 1. For businesses considering solar, this isn’t a distant risk, it’s a near-term price movement that could materially increase project budgets.
Why Acting Now Makes Financial Sense
- Lock in lower equipment costs
By investing in solar PV now, businesses can secure panels and related components at current prices, potentially avoiding the upcoming price increase tied to the rebate removal. Quotes issued today may no longer be viable even a few months into 2026 as suppliers adjust to the new export cost structure.
- Capitalise on availability and lead times
With many buyers expected to front-load purchases ahead of April, lead times for delivery and installation could extend. Acting now helps ensure project timelines stay on track without waiting for crowded production slots in the spring and summer.
- Maximise return on investment (ROI)
Solar PV systems deliver ROI through energy savings, tax incentives and sustainable branding. A delay that results in paying 10–15 % more for modules can materially lengthen payback periods, especially for large commercial or industrial installations.
- Avoid rising raw material pressures
Beyond policy changes, raw material costs (such as silver, polysilicon, aluminium and logistics) continue to put upward pressure on PV component pricing. As manufacturers shed rebate support, these underlying costs are more likely to be reflected in final prices rather than absorbed upstream.
- Hedge against market volatility
Solar markets are dynamic, policy changes like this one can have ripple effects from supply chain restructuring to industry consolidation as smaller producers feel pressure. Acting earlier enables businesses to hedge against volatility and secure long-term energy security.
What This Means for Your Business
Solar PV isn’t just an environmental investment, it’s a strategic financial decision, read our latest case study with The Encore Group on how our recent solar PV installation supported lowering their operating costs . Whether you’re a small business seeking energy independence or a large enterprise planning large-scale renewable deployment, the window to lock in lower costs is narrowing.
Delaying installation until after April 2026 could mean paying a premium for the same hardware. With the combination of policy-driven price increases and broader supply chain cost pressures, investing now makes both financial and operational sense.
If your business is considering solar PV, early action could save significant capital, secure project timelines, and enhance long-term financial returns. With China’s export rebate change set to reshape global pricing, the smart move is to act before April 1, not after.
For more information on solar PV installations and how to lock in your costs prior to the 1st of April, please contact our team.
